State of the property market in South Africa
John S Lottering: March 2010
The following are the significant findings or conclusions made in this issue of Rode’s Report:
- Cap rates moving sideways
- Uptrend in office vacancies striking
- Flat landlords under huge stress
- Nominal house prices turning the corner
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John S Lottering: November 2009
The following are the significant findings or conclusions made in this issue of Rode’s Report:
- Cap rates moving sideways
- Uptrend in office vacancies striking
- Flat landlords under huge stress
- Nominal house prices turning the corner
To read the full article please click
here >> (PDF – 38 KB)
John S Lottering: August 2009
The following are the significant findings or conclusions made in this issue of Rode’s Report:
- Modest real-rental growth to hold back cap rates
- Still fairly good office-rental growth, but decelerating trend picking up
- Flat rentals flat-lining
- Signs of a nominal recovery, but real prices most likely to continue heading south
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John S Lottering: July 2009
The following are the significant findings or conclusions made in this issue of Rode’s Report:
- Are cap rates topping?
- Office market still in upswing
- Industrial rental growth curbed to single digits
- Tough times ahead for the affordable house market
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John S Lottering: March 2009
The following are the significant findings or conclusions made in this issue of Rode’s Report:
- Capitalization rates could be peaking.
- Listed yields strengthen on back of stronger long-bond yields.
- The house market: Recovery or kaput in 2009?
- Cement sales remain in the red.
- Inflation expectations nose-diving.
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John S Lottering: December 2008
The following are the significant findings or conclusions made in this issue of Rode’s Report:
- Capitalization rates’ tide turning.
- Office market continues to enjoy double-digit rental growth.
- Cooling industrial rental growth.
- Stalling house prices.
- Building-cost inflation collapsing?
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John S Lottering: October 2008
The following are the significant findings or conclusions made in this issue of Rode’s Report:
- Cap rates showing a weakening (increasing) trend.
- Office rentals continue to grow impressively.
- Real house-price cycle topping in
- Levelling-off in office and industrial building plans passed.
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John S Lottering: July 2008
The following are the significant findings or conclusions made in this issue of Rode’s Report:
- Industrial-leaseback and shopping-centre capitalization rates feeling the pinch, but no need to panic yet.
- Vacant prime office space remains a rare commodity.
- Industrial stands taking a break from triple-digit-growth rates.
- More heavy blows expected in the residential property market.
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Garth Johnson: April 2008
The following are significant findings or conclusions made in this issue
of Rode's Report:
- Higher risk brought on by electricity shock might soon be reflected in capitalization rates.
- Pretoria and Durban decentralized office rental growth lagging behind.
- Industrial rentals continue to grow fervently.
- Exceptional growth of industrial stand values sustained by industrial rental’s leveraging effect
- People of colour dominating lower-priced house market
- Non-residential building ambitions cooling off as well
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Garth Johnson: December 2007
The following are significant findings or conclusions made in this issue
of Rode's Report:
- Cap rates’ mixed reaction to interest-rate hikes.
- Top decentralized office nodes show strong nominal growth.
- Industrial real rental upswing phase now strongly entrenched.
- Industrial stand values continue to surge.
- House prices still growing at double-digit rates; but for how long?
- Non-residential contractors more upbeat about future building conditions than their residential counterparts.
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Garth Johnson: September 2007
The following are significant findings or conclusions made in this issue
of Rode's Report:
- Cap rates are tending south again
- Johannesburg’s office rentals are leading the upswing on the back of low vacancies
- Office-zoned stands have great investment potential
- The industrial market is still booming
- The house market is still decelerating
- The future belongs to non-residential contractors.
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Garth Johnson: June 2007
The following are significant findings or conclusions made in this issue
of Rode's Report:
- Cap rates on an even keel.
- Double-digit income-stream growth for listed funds
- Cape Town and Pretoria office markets battle to turn the corner
- Industrial rentals still steaming ahead
- House prices still showing little impact of interest-rate hikes
- Residential contractors’ profit margins are contracting.
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Garth Johnson: March 2007
The following are significant findings or conclusions made in this issue
of Rode's Report:
- Cap rates take a breather.
- Listed property’s comeback.
- Office market accelerates but Cape Town still in doldrums.
- Industrial boom still on.
- House-price deceleration takes a break.
- Building contractors remain optimistic
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Garth Johnson: December 2006
The following are significant findings or conclusions made in this issue
of Rode's Report:
- Cap rates putting on the brakes.
- Investors in listed funds wake up to fundamentals.
- Office rentals still haven’t taken off convincingly.
- Industrial boom far from over.
- Small-town houses offer the best yields.
- Building contractors’ growth in profit margins slows.
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Garth Johnson: September 2006
The following are significant findings or conclusions made in this issue
of Rode's Report:
- Cap rates resist threat of interest-rate hikes.
- Listed property’s recent blow.
- Office market’s vigour starts to show.
- Industrial rentals continue to grow.
- House-price growth still declining.
- Building activity set to keep pressure on building costs.
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Garth Johnson: June 2006
The following are significant findings or conclusions made in this issue
of Rode's Report:
- Capitalization rates and hurdle rates still falling.
- Listed property’s income yields surprise again.
- Real office rentals still battling to turn the corner.
- Prospects for industrial property remain good.
- House-price growth decelerates further.
- Building-cost inflation remains high.
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Garth Johnson: March 2006
The following are significant findings or conclusions made in this issue
of Rode's Report:
- Capitalization rates continued their decline
- Leaseback escalation rates seem fair
- Income-stream growth of listed funds holds key to future returns.
- Real decentralized office rentals continued to decline.
- Rentals in most of the major industrial conurbations continued to
grow.
- Flat-rental growth still not beating building-cost inflation.
- House-price growth still has some momentum.
- Building-cost inflation expected to remain robust.
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Garth Johnson: November 2005
The following are significant findings or conclusions made in this issue
of Rode's Report :
- Shopping-centre capitalization rates take a breather.
- Income-stream growth drives listed funds' prices.
- Nominal rental growth shows promise, but is still not close to beating
building-cost inflation.
- Industrial rentals still racing ahead.
- House prices still losing steam.
- Building-cost inflation still strong as a result of robust building
activity.
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Garth Johnson: September 2005
The following are significant findings or conclusions made in this issue
of Rode’s Report:
- Capitalization rates for all property types are still declining, although
office and industrial rates probably still have the most to shed.
- Listed property yields are expected to remain around current levels
in the short to medium term ...
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Garth Johnson: June 2005
Demand for industrial and office space continued to strengthen during
the first quarter of 2005. However, the office market is still lagging
the industrial market on some fronts. Even though house-price growth decelerated
during the reporting quarter, it is still growing at an awesome rate.
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Garth Johnson: March 2005
On the non-residential front, the office market is still battling in
places, but solace is to be found in the industrial property market, which
is still in fifth gear. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the residential
property market was still growing at a firm pace in the first two months
of 2005, which is what we expect it to do for the remainder of the year,
albeit not at the same tempo as in 2004.
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Garth Johnson: December 2004
All indications are that the focus will shift from residential to non-residential
property over the next few years. Notwithstanding this, the residential
property market is expected to lose steam only slowly. Hence, next year
will probably be a good year for property all round.
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Garth Johnson: September 2004
Non-residential property's market values increased further in the second
quarter of 2004, driven mainly by the continued rerating of property by
investors.
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Dirk De Vynck: June 2004
Conditions in the non-residential property market improved further in
the first quarter of 2004, with the majority of property indicators showing
that an upswing in real rentals must be close.
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Dirk De Vynck: March 2004
On the whole, conditions in the non-residential property market seem
to be improving. Evidence of this can be found in the continued decline
of standard capitalization rates as well the healthy office take-up recorded
in especially the decentralized office nodes. However, by the end of 2003,
there was still no recovery in the real rentals of office and industrial
buildings.
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Dirk De Vynck: November 2003
Finally! Non-residential property appears to be over the worst. The best
evidence of this can be found in the decline of standard capitalization
rates in quarter 2003:3, which was noticed for all non-residential property
types, except industrials.
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here >> (PDF - 54 KB)
Dirk De Vynck: September 2003
On average, the majority of our non-residential property indicators for
quarter 2003:2 still pointed to a market under siege. As for residential
property, house prices were still firmly nestled in their upswing, whilst
real flat rentals were consolidating.
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here >> (PDF – 96 KB)
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